3/30/2017 9:02:30 PM
LA Clippers +1.18
NBA - 03/30 10:05pm - LA Clippers vs Phoenix
Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Jets are a miserable 2-9 against the money line (-8.4 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; Buffalo is a stout 17-8 against the money line (+11.3 Units) when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt and are 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games when they allow 4.5 to 5 rushing yards per attempt
Fundamenta l Discussion Points Both teams start the season off with losses and it already a[ears that the Patriots – even if Brady did not play one game – would easily win the Division. However, this is just Week 2 and getting to 0.500 may prove to be just what Buffalo needs in order to contend for a wild card berth.
Buffalo significantly underperformed it’s DVOA (defense adjusted value over average) in Week 1 and teams that have missed the average by two standard deviations or more from their mean have a very strong tendency to outperform their mean in the following week. This same concept also applies to Buffalo’s offense so we have a powerful combination of a team, in needs of a win at home, having played horrid football in the previous week. Buffalo will get much better use of their ground attack with McCoy and give Tyrod a chance to use play action pass to open up the middle of the field and gain that extra second to execute plays. TE Charles Clay had an excellent game in Week 1 and I expect him to be a key ingredient to this win tonight.